Liverpool Issues

Even though £40m (net) has been spent on transfers in 14 months, £30m has been wiped off the annual wage bill. Liverpool are no longer a Champions League club, and have had to cut their cloth accordingly.

The excellent commercial deals made this season – particularly the Warrior kit deal – suggest that the wage bill can now be safely increased and it not trouble Liverpool’s Financial Fair Play outlook; as well as making sure that a higher wage bill won’t cripple the club (a la Leeds United) if it remains out of the Champions League.

The more time that passes, the brighter Liverpool’s future looks, providing Uefa stick to their guns, because the Reds are now run by sensible, intelligent owners whose long-term plan was built around such a scenario. Equally, without a massive stadium, and without Champions League income, the new commercial deals will only go so far. The good news is that clubs like Chelsea and Manchester City, who have been built on artificial wealth, will have to do more than make annual net spends of £100m+.

Whether or not Kenny is definitely the man to take the club forward in the long-term is hard to say; but he’s done enough to deserve some time and patience. Equally, those responsible for buying players – and people tend to blame either Comolli or Dalglish when they go wrong, but the opposite person when they do well – need to find a couple of gems in the summer.

None of the current first XI is dropping off a cliff next season. Gerrard and Kuyt are fading forces in their thirties, but far from finished. And Carragher is already a squad player.

Providing Gerrard stays fit, and assuming that Craig Bellamy remains an important asset, the squad can get stronger simply by youngsters improving. Providing he isn’t heckled further into his shell, I’d expect Henderson to get better, and Shelvey could usurp Adam, while Coates could perhaps force Carragher further from the first team.

The prodigious Raheem Sterling made the breakthrough yesterday, and looked right at home, despite still being 16 until just before Christmas. He has immense potential, and his pace can make him a threat, but has a lot to learn in terms of when to go it alone and when to pass, and will need some patience. Other good players wait in the wings from a youth system overhauled by Benítez in 2009, with Dalglish’s help.

But on the surface, a finisher seems vital. Had Liverpool taken their chances earlier in the season, they wouldn’t be in this position; they would have some leeway. More of Dan Kennett’s excellent work shows that Liverpool’s clear cut chance conversion rate is 10% below the Premier League average, but that their opponents are bagging 10% above the average in games against them. As poor as Liverpool’s finishing has been, the opposition, as seen at QPR, are gobbling up an unusually high percentage of a limited number of chances. Can that continue?

Liverpool, and in particular Suarez, hit the woodwork more than anyone else, but the player who used to do so most regularly was Robin Van Persie, whose aim has now improved. So it’s not necessarily a case of being a bad striker, but just adjusting your aim by a fraction (and in two recent games, Suarez has hit the post but someone has put in the rebound). If Suarez can get his head straight after the Evra debacle – and his recent scoring form suggests he’s getting there – he can definitely become a 20-goals-a-season striker, if not replicate his 50 in Holland.

Then there’s the fact that Liverpool won the Carling Cup on penalties (albeit after a very hard run to the final), but in the Premier League have dropped more than five points – the highest in the division – due to missing their spot-kicks. Of course, the cup was won by Cardiff missing more, but despite missing their first two attempts, Liverpool’s success rate in that shootout was far better than it has been in league games. (See this excellent article for details of how costly it’s proven.)

For all the concerns, I retain a sense of something good bubbling just under. A second trophy would make finishing between 6th and 10th largely irrelevant, other than for anything below 8th becoming worst finish by Liverpool in decades (although Dalglish saved Hodgson that probable ignominy).

Getting back to defending set-pieces the way the Reds did for the first 10 months of Dalglish’s return would also help. Whatever system a manager chooses, the defending can get nervy when corners start leading to goals, and that in turn leads to more. (At the other end, Adam’s famed set-piece delivery disappeared once he got the yips: another example of the pressure players are put under causing them to wobble.)

Get more intelligence into the defence – Agger and Johnson instantly do that – and into the midfield – Lucas instantly does that – and suddenly the side looks stronger. [Addition from Dan: In the 20 PL games Agger has played 90mins, Liverpool's opponents have created 18 clear chances (39% conversion). In the other 10 it's 19 at 58%.]

Sort out the issue of right-midfield, with Henderson largely lost there, and with Kuyt not as consistent as before, and that will help. More goals from midfield – like those scored by Gerrard against Everton – and that too will make a huge difference.

Finally, find a striker who only needs to score goals at the average rate, and convert penalties accordingly, and we can easily be talking about 20 more points in the season. Get it wrong, however, and we may be in for another bumpy ride.