Why You Should Never Trust a Statistic Unless You've Faked It Yourself

Statistics are the backbone of modern decision-making. They inform everything from public policy to marketing campaigns. But as the saying goes, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." And it's easy to see why.

Statistics can be manipulated to support almost any argument. This is because they are often based on incomplete or biased data. For example, a study that finds that a certain drug is effective may not have taken into account the side effects of the drug. Or a survey that finds that a certain politician is popular may not have interviewed a representative sample of the population.

But it's not just intentional manipulation that can lead to misleading statistics. Unintentional errors can also result in false conclusions. For example, a study that relies on self-reported data may be biased because people tend to exaggerate or downplay their own behavior. Or a study that compares two groups may not have taken into account all of the factors that could affect the results.

So, what's a discerning reader to do? The best way to protect yourself from being misled by statistics is to be skeptical. Don't take them at face value. Ask questions about the data, the methods, and the conclusions. And if you're not sure whether a particular statistic is trustworthy, don't rely on it.

Here are a few tips to help you evaluate statistics:

• Check the source. Is it a reputable organization? Or is it an organization with a vested interest in the outcome of the study?
• Consider the sample size. Are the results based on a representative sample of the population? Or are they based on a small, biased sample?
• Look at the methods. How was the data collected? Was it collected using sound scientific methods? Or was it collected using flawed methods that could lead to bias?
• Be aware of your own biases. Are you more likely to believe a statistic that confirms your own beliefs? Or are you willing to consider statistics that challenge your beliefs?

By following these tips, you can become a more informed consumer of statistics. You can protect yourself from being misled by false or misleading information. And you can make better decisions based on the facts.

So the next time you see a statistic, don't just believe it. Ask questions. Be skeptical. And make sure you understand the data before you draw any conclusions.

After all, statistics don't lie. But they can be made to dance.